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2018-2019 Webinar Series

Lake States Fire Science Webinar October 2018



WeatherSHIELD: a system for forecasting fire weather and indices.


Tuesday, October 23, 2018 at 2:00 PM Eastern/ 1:00 PM Central


Aaron Stacey
MES, Fire Science and Planning Specialist (Peterborough) Aviation, Forest Fire and Emergency Services, Ontario


WeatherSHIELD (Weather SHort & Intermediate Ensemble and Long-term Dynamic weather patterns) is a system for preparing and displaying probabilistic weather forecasts over the short, intermediate, and long term. WeatherSHIELD is comprised of (1) Aviation Forest Fire & Emergency Services’ 5 day forecast, (2) the North American Ensemble Forecast System’s 14 day ensemble forecast, and (3) a long-term forecast up to the end-of-season utilizing a pattern matching method for selecting specific historical years’ weather according to how well historical ocean temperature indicators match current and forecast indicators. In this presentation, the current use of WeatherSHIELD will be shown and the continued validation that is being conducted by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources & Forestry and its research partners will be discussed.

Co-hosted by Alaska Fire Science Consortium and the North Atlantic Fire Science Exchange


Recording: MP4 video (streaming)

Recording: YouTube

PDF of presentation

Additional resources available on WeatherSHIELD - Colin McFayden presented about WeatherSHIELD at the Spring 2017 Alaska Fire Science Workshop. Access the recordings of his talk and PowerPoint.


  • To Test your computer internet connection and compatibility with adobe connect, click here and follow the prompts.
  • You will need to use the speaker output from your computer, so make sure you know how to control your speaker volume and attach external speakers for better performance. We will prompt you to type questions in the chat box throughout the session.